02/20/2026

Solar activity returned to low levels this past week. The strongest
event of the period was a C1.8 flare on February 17 from region
4374. This region was also responsible for a C1.4 flare on February
18. The only other flare of note was a C1.1 flare on February 17
from an unnumbered plage region near S05E85. (A plage region is a
bright, intensely hot region in the Sun's chromosphere, typically
found in active areas surrounding sunspots.)

Region 4374 exhibited minor decay through the dissipation of its
trailing spots. Regions 4375 and 4377 were largely unchanged in area
and complexity.
ÿ
A large filament eruption beyond the southwest limb was seen in SDO
and SUVI imagery starting approximately February 18. It was
associated with a Type II radio sweep that began on February 18 with
an estimated shock velocity of 310 km/s. The eruption was first
visible in coronagraph imagery on February 18, but initial analysis
indicates no Earth-directed component. Solar activity is forecast to
be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares through February 20.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a
positive polarity Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speed followed a general declining trend, decreasing from an
initial peak near 600 km/s to approximately 500 km/s by the end of
the reporting period. The solar wind environment is expected to
remain enhanced through February 20 due to continued but weakening
CH HSS influences.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 19, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity was relatively high in the first week of
February, with the number of sunspot groups on the solar disk
ranging from seven to nine. Over the next ten days, we observed an
almost uninterrupted decline, at the end of which there were only
three sunspot groups remaining on the disk.

"Significant eruptions could only occur in one of them: AR 4374.
Before it set behind the western limb of the solar disk, one of the
few more powerful eruptions was observed in it. It happened on
February 16, with the peak at 0436 UT, accompanied by a CME,
partially heading towards Earth. The arrival was expected on
February 19. Although it did so at 1501 UT, Earth only encountered
the edge of the particle cloud - and in fact, almost nothing
happened.

"Geomagnetic activity was elevated on February 15-16. The phenomenon
began with a positive phase of disturbance in the evening hours,
during which there was a noticeable improvement in shortwave
propagation conditions. A significant deterioration naturally
followed on February 16, partially also on February 17.

"Any geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of the predicted
period should be short (on 19th), while another disturbance can be
expected around February 24. Given that solar activity will be on
the rise again at that time, a positive phase of the disturbance can
be expected."

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on February 24 and 25, and on March 5 to 7 due to recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on
March 12 following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on
March 14 with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.ÿ Barring the
potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected until February 23, and then February 26 to March 4.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 21 to 27 is 5, 5, 8,
20, 20, 8, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.ÿ The Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.
10.7-centimeter flux is 105, 120, 130, 135, 130, 130, and 140, with
a mean of 127.1.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/27/2026

Spaceweather.com[1] for February 27 reports about a minor CME hurling
towards Earth.

Solar activity remains at low levels due primarily to C-class flares
just beyond the SE limb near S21. The largest was a C5.3 flare on
February 25. On the visible disk, an approximate 5-degree filament
eruption was observed centered near S08W27 with an associated C2.6
flare.

The eruption was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (595 km/s) and
possibly two related coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first observed
in ST A COR2 imagery beginning on February 25. Two CMEs were
observed off the NE and E limbs in the imagery. However, SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery only showed the northerly CME. Analysis of the CMEs is in
progress.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight
chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/minor-moderate), as the
bright regions currently seen at the east limb rotate onto the
visible disk.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to show Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 530-650
km/s. Conditions are likely to return to nominal levels as High
Speed Stream activity wanes.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 26, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Between February 22 and 24, there was not a single spot on the
solar disk, which last happened less than four years ago. The
maximum of the 25th cycle is behind us, while the years 2024-2025
can be considered the years of cycle maximum.

"At the same time, the Sun is in a key phase of reversing its
magnetic field. This process is a natural part of the 11-year solar
cycle, usually occurring asymmetrically (the northern and southern
hemispheres of the Sun may reverse at slightly different times, with
the process taking several months). The magnetic field in the polar
regions of the Sun gradually weakens until it completely breaks down
and reforms with the opposite polarity.

"The next eleven-year solar minimum (the transition between the
current 25th and future 26th cycles) is expected in 2030-2031, when
the Sun's magnetic field will stabilize again and the star will
enter a quiet period. A more precise date for the minimum will only
be possible to determine at the end of the decade based on the
current development of sunspots.

"During the first week of March, solar activity should gradually
increase and then decrease in the following week. Changes in the
intensity of the solar wind will have the greatest impact on the
development of shortwave propagation conditions. For prediction of
these changes, it is recommended to monitor the position and area of
coronal holes and, in particular, solar flares that will be located
near their edges.

"This can be monitored excellently at https://www.solarham.com/[2], for example, and even professionals will confirm that you will find
everything you need here to understand the causes of ongoing events
and for operational practice. In addition, we can monitor the local
effects in the ionosphere in detail especially thanks to ionospheric
digisonde stations, dozens of which are available on the internet!"

Active periods are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm
levels, on February 28 to March 1, due to the anticipated arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on February 25.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on March 3, and then on March 6 to 8
due to anticipated influence of multiple recurrent coronal holes.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc[3] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 28 to March 6 is 5, 5,
5, 5, 5, 15, and 15, with a mean of 7.9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 2.6.
10.7-centimeter flux is 122, 122, 125, 125, 125, 125, and 130, with
a mean of 124.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.solarham.com/
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/06/2026

Solar activity continued at low levels with isolated C-class
flaring. Regions 4381 and 4384 remained the primary drivers of
activity. The largest event of the period was a C2.9 flare from
Region 4381 on March 3. Region 4384 continues to rotate further onto
the disk, but foreshortening still hinders a definitive
characterization of its magnetic complexity. Region 4378 showed some
new flux emergence but remained mostly inactive.
ÿ
Region 4383 simplified into a unipolar group following the loss of
its trailing spots, while Region 4380 decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/minor-moderate) through March 6.

A brief description of Sunspots can be found on the Space Weather
Prediction Center website at, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle[1] .
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased
to 450 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced
due to the ongoing influence of the +CH HSS. Residual enhancements
are likely to persist, keeping conditions slightly above background
levels before another enhancement is expected with the onset of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).ÿ Active
conditions are expected on March 7 and 8 as high-speed stream
influences continue.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, March 5, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity declined, with the number of sunspot groups
ranging between three and six over the past week. Their magnetic
configuration was simple, so no significant flares on the solar disk
was observed.

"However, the solar flux remained at a relatively high level of
130-148 s.f.u., which, together with a decrease in geomagnetic
activity (no major disturbances, just alternating calm and
moderately active days), resulted in improved conditions for
shortwave propagation.

"The current trend is expected to continue for the time being. A
change will be caused by a decline in solar activity in the second
decade of March. This will be very noticeable in the decline in
solar radio flux."

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on March 8, 11 and 12, and March 15 to
19 due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions are likely on
March 10, 12, March 14 and 15, and March 20.ÿ Unsettled conditions
are likely on March 8 and 9, March 11, March 13, and March 16 to 19.
All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

The current solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc[2] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for March 7 to 13 is 5, 8, 10, 18,
10, 15, and 10, with a mean of 10.9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.1.ÿ 10.7-centimeter flux
is 156, 156, 150, 145, 140, 135, and 128, with a mean of 144.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS